How to win on political betting
It is common knowledge that football markets are by far the most popular sportsbook destination for every punter. But there is another corner in most sportsbooks that experienced bettors prefer to visit. The Politics markets. During the past 5 years, they have seen a rapid expansion and it comes without saying that how to bet on political events and how to bet money on presidential elections have become among the most popular on google search. A political prediction market is not what you’d call a brand new thing, but its development in the last few years is beyond spectacular. Luckily enough, you are not left in the dark when it comes to this market as we have everything you need to know about betting on politics and elections covered. All that is needed from you is to find the politics betting site of your choice by checking any of our top options below. Without further ado, let’s take a look at some cool tips on how to bet on politics.
#1 Bet on elections you know and understand
Let’s assume that your next step on your sportsbook is political betting, otherwise known as betting on politics. As you can easily realise you should only bet on elections you know and understand. Although you might think this is pretty obvious, not all punters are aware of this. Elections and politics markets are not like Eurovision or other special markets that you can find in – almost any – sportsbook. If for example, you want to bet at the forthcoming French election, make sure you know the type of government of the country. Make sure that you understand if the elections are for the house of parliament or the President etc. General election odds are not always so tempting for a punter and for that most bettors find themselves trapped in choices with great odds but with minimal chances of winning. Choose wisely through detailed research about every possible aspect to improve your confirmation rate.
#2 Don’t focus entirely on winner markets
How can you bet on elections if you don’t pick the winning party or person? Obviously by focusing on smaller parties. Because the betting odds in general election for contenders are in most cases not what you would call value bets. Usually, the party that leads all polls is the ultimate favorite for winning and the price range is from 1.05 to 1.20. So why bother with this type of betting. It is not actually like that. There is value in political betting if you are willing to search deeper in the sportsbook. For example in the elections for the European Parliament don’t bet on the winner. Have a look at every nation smallest parties and bet if they will be represented in the European Parliament. Of course, you have to make research using trustworthy news networks and don’t just rely on twitter and facebook. Learn about them, their recent history and their actual potential. The real value comes to lines. Check the bookies estimation about the percentage of small parties and then see if you can back them or bet against them. Even better you can bet on candidates in inter parties elections. The candidates’ odds are usually in the value bet area, so if you have good tips then you can get some good money here.
#3 Don’t check polls and facts based on your political preference
There is a golden rule in betting. Don’t back your favourite teams because you can’t possibly be objective. The same rule applies here. Or maybe it is a little bit worse here. For example, if you are a liberal you probably read or follow liberal media. So the information or polls you look at could be one-sided. In such a way you won’t be able to have the whole picture before making up your decision. And as you understand and hopefully know it is very important to have all the needed information before placing your bet. So try and read everything that is relevant, even if it means visiting a news site or blog that promotes a different political agenda. A bet on political events can only be a winning one if you take all aspects into account.
#4 Understand that traders usually get it right
Politics betting markets are usually as reliable as the exit polls. In recent global history, there have been very few upsets. Namely, we’ve seen the US Presidential Elections of 2016, Brexit and the Greek referendum end up on a different result compared to the bookies estimations. Especially the Brexit betting odds were so wrong that can be used for future studies. But the general idea is that bookies don’t make mistakes in elections odds. So as a punter if you find decent odds then go for it, otherwise pass this section and move to a market more familiar and with value to your money.
#5 Avoid multi-option markets
Wondering how to bet on presidential elections? We can easily tell you how not to. First and foremost, avoid multi-option markets. Just like sports betting there is no betting value in them. The margin is really high and it is recommended only for gamblers and not dedicated bettors. If you only place a bet for the fun of it, you can check those markets. Otherwise, you can seek and learn the true value bets in other more rationalized politics betting markets.
#6 Populism and party loyalty
Betting on election results is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Especially in the last ten years the political scene, populism in almost every western world country has made predictions extremely blurry. Take for example the British referendum. The Brexit betting odds, following the polls, were “showing” that the Brits would vote in favor of staying in E.U. As we all know they didn’t. But it’s not the only example. Populism is a new key factor in almost every country and voters are not so loyal to their parties as they used to be. In addition, new parties seek representation and nothing is as we used to know. Traditional parties all across Europe lose their influence to voters and in this fragile environment, bettors are called to place their predictions.
Betting on politics has become more volatile than betting live in a tennis match. So what should a bettor do? Take care of his bankroll and not spend his money on random bets. If you don’t want to be that bettor you might want to spend some time reading about the market that interests you. Learn everything you can and then place your bet.
Frequently asked questions
What political betting markets can I bet on?
US elections, both Presidential and for the House, are the most popular politics betting markets worldwide. And you can find a market almost every time period. For instance, you can find who is going to run for President, or if the current president is going to make some changes in his administration. Note that some markets such as “Will Oprah(or every other celebrity) run at 2020” are there mostly to attract the interest of the public and not realistic options.
In Britain, the Brexit betting continues, only now with the side effects of the referendum. For example, at the time of writing, who is going to succeed Teresa May or the date Article 50 will be put into effect etc. And of course you can always find markets about local elections from all over the world. Not with such details as the above, but still very interesting from a bettor’s point of view.
Can you legally bet on the presidential election?
Yes of course. In every country it is legal to bet on sports you can also bet on politics, entertainment etc. There all are under the same rule.
Can you bet on politics in Vegas?
Unfortunately not, because Vegas sportsbooks do not include that option for their clients. So if you are a US resident you have to register in one of the best political betting sites such as Bovada, Betonline, Sportsbook.ag or predictit.org.
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